2009年世界贸易报告（WORLD TRADE REPORT 2009）

分类：研讨培训日期：2009-08-24 09:16:48 来源：厂商

【报告简介】：

The World Trade Report 2009 was prepared under the general direction of Deputy Director-General Alejandro Jara and supervised by Patrick Low, Director of the Economic Research and Statistics Division,The principal authors of the Report were Marc Bacchetta, K. Michael Finger, Marion Jansen, Alexander Keck, Coleman Nee, Roberta Piermartini, Michele Ruta and Robert Teh. Trade statistics information was provided by the Statistics Group of the Economic Research and Statistics Division, coordinated by Hubert Escaith, Julia de Verteuil, Andreas Maurer and Jürgen Richtering. Other written contributions were provided by Rudolf Adlung, Lee-Ann Jackson, Jesse Kreier and Hiromi Yano.
Aishah Colautti of the Economic Research and Statistics Division assisted in the preparation of the graphical input and Souda Tandara-Stenier of the Economic Research and Statistics Division prepared the Bibliography. Research assistance was provided by Arastou Khatibi, Joelle Latina, Thuy Nguyen, Thuy Thu Nguyen, Laura Rovegno and Joel Strange. Other Divisions in the WTO Secretariat provided valuable
comments on drafts at various stages of preparation. The authors are particularely grateful to several individuals in the Agriculture and Commodities Division, the Appellate Body Secretariat, the Institute for Training and Technical Cooperation, the Legal Affairs Division, the Market Access Division, the Rules Division and the Trade in Services Division.
The authors also wish to thank the following individuals from outside the WTO Secretariat who took the time to provide comments on drafts of the Report: Ilaria Accorsi, Kyle Bagwell, Chad Bown, Michael Finger,Jorge Miranda, Michael Moore, Douglas Nelson, Julio Nogués, Hildegunn Kyvik Nördas, Tom Prusa,Mauricio Reina, Robert Staiger and Maurizio Zanardi.
The production of the Report was managed by Paulette Planchette of the Economic Research and Statistics Division in close cooperation with Anthony Martin, Serge Marin-Pache and Heather Sapey-Pertin of the Information and External Relations Division. Anthony Martin assisted by Paulette Planchette and Lidia Carlos Silvetti provided editorial assistance. Gratitude is also due to the translators in the Languages, Documentation and Information Management Division for their hard work.

【报告目录】：

CONTENTS

ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS .......................................................................................................vii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................................................................................ix
DISCLAIMER .........................................................................................................................x
FOREWORD BY THE DIRECTOR-GENERAL ................................................................................xi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................xiii
I THE TRADE SITUATION IN 2008-9 ........................................... 1
INTRODUCTION ......................................................................... 1
B OVERVIEW OF TRADE AND PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENTS IN 2008-09
C MERCHANDISE TRADE, VOLUME （REAL） TERMS, 2008 ........... 5
D MERCHANDISE AND SERVICES TRADE, VALUE （NOMINAL） TERMS, 2008
II TRADE POLICY COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCY MEASURES ....... 19
A INTRODUCTION ..................................................................... 19
B FLEXIBILITY IN TRADE AGREEMENTS .......................................... 21
1. Economic theories of trade agreements and the role of flexibilities ..... 21
2. Circumstances for suspension of commitments and flexibility measures
built into the WTO agreements ..................................................30
Conclusions .................................................................................39
C ECONOMICS, DISCIPLINES AND PRACTICES .......................................................... 47
Safeguards ............................................................................. 47
2. Dumping and anti-dumping measures ...................................65
3. Subsidies and countervailing duties ........................................84
4. Other selected measures of contingency protection ............102
5. Choosing among different measures ..................................................... 114
6. Conclusions ..................................................................... 117
D EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE .........................................................................................127
1. Patterns and trends in the use of contingency measures .....................................................127
2. Contingency measures and the multilateral trading system ..............142
3. Factors explaining the use of trade contingency measures ............147
4. The economic impact of contingency measures .....................152
5. Conclusions ...............................................156
E CONCLUSIONS ............................................................159
BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................161
TECHNICAL NOTES ............................................................169

LIST OF TaBlES, CHarTS aNd BOXES

I THE TRADE SITUATION IN 2008-09
Tables
Table 1 GDP and merchandise trade by region, 2006-08 .................... 6
Table 2 World exports of merchandise and commercial services, 2008 ..... 8
Table 3 World exports of commercial services by major category, 2008 .... 9
Charts
Chart 1 Real GDP and trade growth of OECD countries, 2007-08 ............ 1
Chart 2 Prices of selected primary products, January 2002-January 2009 .. 4
Chart 3 Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade and GDP, 1998-2008
Chart 4 Real merchandise trade growth by region, 2008 .................. 6
Chart 5 Export prices of selected primary products, 2006-08 .............. 7
Chart 6 Dollar exchange rates of selected major currencies, January 2000-January 2009
Appendix
App. Table 1 World merchandise trade by region and selected country, 2008
App. Table 2 World exports of commercial services by region and selected country, 2008
App. Table 3 Merchandise trade: leading exporters and importers, 2008
App. Table 4 Merchandise trade: leading exporters and importers, 2008 （Excluding intra-EU （27） trade） ...... 16
App. Table 5 Leading exporters and importers in world trade in commercial services, 2008
App. Chart 1 Monthly merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2006-February 2009 ..... 11
II TRADE POLICY COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCY MEASURES
B. FLEXIBILITY IN TRADE AGREEMENTS
Tables
Table 1 A categorization of circumstances and arguments for a temporary increase in protection ..................... 31
Boxes
Box 1 Terms-of-trade and the international cost-shifting problem ...........22
Box 2 Time-inconsistency ..........................................................23
Box 3 Commitment versus flexibility: the case of safeguards in the GATT and WTO
C. ECONOMICS, DISCIPLINES AND PRACTICES
Tables
Table 2 Suspension of concessions pursuant to SGA Article 8.2 ............64
Charts
Chart 1 Binding coverage including and excluding subheadings with an overhang
exceeding 20 resp. 15 percentage points, by region ........................107
Chart 2 Binding coverage including and excluding subheadings with a binding overhang
exceeding 15 percentage points, by product category ......................108

Boxes
Box 4 “Automatic” safeguards in agriculture .....................................50
Box 5 Is there a need for a services
Box 6 Effects of tariff, quota and tariff-rate quota .........................60
– Figure 1: The effect of a tariff............................................60
– Figure 2: The effect of a quota......................................60
– Figure 3: The difference between a tariff and a quota .................... 61
– Figure 4: The effect of a tariff-rate quota （TRQ） ................... 61
Box 7 How anti-dumping can be used to facilitate collusion .................. 71
– Figure 1: Representation of the game in profit space ................72
Box 8 Effects of an export subsidy ................................85
– Figure 1: The effect of an export subsidy implemented by a large country
Box 9 Strategic trade policy .............................................................87
– Figure 1: Output subsidy and reaction functions in Cournot model .......87
Box 10 The effects of an export subsidy combined with a CVD ..............90
– Figure 1: The effects of an export subsidy combined with a countervailing tariff:
the case of large countries ...........................................90
Box 11 “Water” in banking sector commitments ................................109
– Table: Degree of discrimination against foreign-owned banks relative to domestic banks:
reported practices compared with WTO commitments .............. 110
D. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
Tables
Table 3 Number of tariff increases: selected members and selected years
Table 4 Number of AD initiations, by user and target, 1995-2007 ........140
Table 5 Number of CVD initiations, by user and target, 1975-2007 ........140
Table 6 Safeguard initiations, by user and target, 1995-2007 ..............140
Table 7 Number of products subject to export taxes as reported in TPRs 1995-2008, selected countries ...... 141
Charts
Chart 3 Annual initiations of AD, CVD and safeguard investigations ........132
Chart 4 Annual number of new AD, CVD and safeguard measures ........132
Chart 5 Trade contingent measures and the global business cycle .........133
Chart 6 Number of Article XXVIII requests, by year.............................134
Chart 7 Number of Article XXVIII requests after round of negotiations ...135
Chart 8 Number of initiations and world import share, by HS section ......137
Chart 9 Number of renegotiations, by HS section .............................137
Chart 10 Number of members applying export taxes, by HS chapter .....138
Chart 11 Number of cases of tariff increases of at least 15 percentage points, by product, 1996-2006 ..............139
Chart 12 AD initiations, by level of development .................139
Chart 13 Number of requests for renegotiations, by member .............. 141
Chart 14 Number of cases of tariff increases of at least 15 percentage points, by country, 1996-2006
Boxes
Box 12 Anti-dumping duties ..............................129
– Table: Average AD duties for selected users （in per cent） ...130
Box 13 Cautionary note on relying on the number of initiations/measures
Box 14 The use of contingency measures in Latin America: evidence based on country case studies
Box 15 Contingency measures in preferential trade agreements （PTAs）